Reducing the Vulnerability of Uzbekistan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change

Reducing the Vulnerability of Uzbekistan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Uzbekistan is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture--directly or indirectly--for their livelihood. The risks associated with climate change pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. The study proposes a clear and comprehensive plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change; developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions; and making needed investments in infrastructure, support services, and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of quality quantitative analysis; consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts; and investments in both human and physical capital. The experience of Uzbekistan, highlighted in this work, shows that it is possible to develop an initiative to meet these objectives, one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of the study is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on 'win-win' or 'no regrets' solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for farmers in Uzbekistan. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions--also known as "climate-smart agriculture." Reducing the Vulnerability of Uzbekistan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options applies this approach to Uzbekistan with the goal of helping the country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The study projects impacts of climate change on agriculture across Uzbekistan's three agro-ecological zones through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns so crucial to farming. It offers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities, outlined through a series of consultations with local farmers. A detailed explanation of the approach is provided for those who want to implement similar programs in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, and anywhere else in the world. The study is one of four produced under the World Bank program 'Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems.' The other countries included in this series are Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and Moldova. The results from the four studies are consolidated in the book Looking Beyond the Horizon: How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.