Econometric Business Cycle Research (1940)

Econometric Business Cycle Research is a seminal work by the Dutch economist Jan Tinbergen, first published in 1940. The book is a pioneering study of the use of statistical methods to analyze economic fluctuations and predict business cycles. Tinbergen's research was groundbreaking in its application of econometric techniques to macroeconomic data, and his work laid the foundation for much of the modern field of econometrics.The book is divided into two parts. The first part provides a theoretical framework for understanding business cycles, drawing on the work of economists such as John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek. Tinbergen argues that fluctuations in economic activity are caused by a combination of exogenous shocks and endogenous feedback mechanisms, and that these can be modeled using statistical techniques.The second part of the book presents Tinbergen's empirical research on business cycles in the United States and the Netherlands. He uses a variety of statistical methods to analyze the data, including time-series analysis, regression analysis, and spectral analysis. Tinbergen's research provides a detailed picture of the cyclical patterns of economic activity, and he identifies several key variables that are predictive of future cycles.Overall, Econometric Business Cycle Research is a landmark work in the history of economics, and it remains an important reference for scholars and practitioners in the field of econometrics. Tinbergen's pioneering use of statistical methods to analyze economic data has had a profound impact on the way economists think about business cycles, and his work continues to influence research in this area today.This scarce antiquarian book is a facsimile reprint of the old original and may contain some imperfections such as library marks and notations. Because we believe this work is culturally important, we have made it available as part of our commitment for protecting, preserving, and promoting the world's literature in affordable, high quality, modern editions, that are true to their original work.